Question: Invest in Gold or Stock Market? | Gold Investment Trading ...

FAQ: Invest in Gold or Stock Market?

I am 22 and about to choose a mutual firm for a ROTH IRA for my retirement. Is it more wise to invest the majority of my money in Gold/Precious metals vs. the stock market? I have been told the stock market is too unstable to invest the majority (I mean 50% or more) in and I dont want to lose all my retirement money in 10 years if/when the stock crashes.

Should I have faith in the economy for the next 35 years as I invest in the stock and pray it doesnt depreciate and lose all my money? Or should I play it really safe and invest 50% or more in the gold area?s?

I dont want to make a mistake in investing for my retirement! Help! thanks

goldsenze.com Answer:

Investment is about asset allocation, about proportioning between risks. In John L. Kelly?s 1956 paper ?A New Interpretation of Information Rate?, Bell System Technical Journal 35: 917?926, he described a fictitious horse race and how the optimum bet was to bet on all horses but proportionately to the probability of winning and the payouts. The only time you would exit from the market completely is if you knew with absolute certainty that the market was to crash. Ben Graham, in his book ?The Intelligent Investor? says to invest 45% of your portfolio in stocks and 55% in bonds but more importantly, he says to never go below 25% invested in stocks and never go above 80% invested in stocks. The portion of your portfolio invested in stocks is the portion at risk, that which is invested in bonds are relatively risk free in that bonds offer contractual returns. The risk free portion allows you to benefit from a market downturn by rebalancing the portfolio and indeed it?s this portion that allows a fund manager to manage the fund. It?s pointless to invest in a fund that is 100% stock unless it has undeniably low fees as in an index fund because there is nothing that the fund manager can do with a 100% portfolio.

Gold and metals is a hedge against a country and an economy, it offers no contractual returns, it offers no intrinsic returns as gold doesn?t actually do anything, it only offers broad acceptance beyond political borders and it?s value is speculative hence an investment in gold is still very much at risk.

You should either invest in a well managed fund that has a near 50/50 asset allocation because then the fund can benefit from a market downturn by simply rebalancing or you should proportion your portfolio yourself between a low fee index fund (index funds are 100% invested in stocks) and bonds or a low fee bond fund and rebalance annually or after major market moves like a downturn. You can then be confident over the next 35 years that even if there is a market crash, that only means you will be scooping up more bargains and hence benefit in the long run.

Investing in gold would not be playing it safe at all.

As to the selection of a Roth versus a standard IRA, the difference is when the taxes are paid. If you multiply A by B, you get the same result as when you multiply B by A so if the tax rate is the same then there is no difference between a Roth and a standard IRA. What you are betting on with a Roth is that your current tax bracket is lower than that when you retire. In general that would only be true early in your career so at some point you should switch to a traditional IRA if your career goes well.

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